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This report was published by the former Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs
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Men's and women's fertility: differences in achieved fertility, expectations and intentions


Habtemariam Tesfaghiorghis1

Research and Analysis Branch
Australian Government Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs


1. Introduction

As Australia has experienced sustained fertility decline over the last four decades, there has been public concern and debate about the implications of falling fertility and what to do to stabilise or reverse the trend (Tesfaghiorghis 2004). However, recent experience has shown that fertility has stabilised or even shown an upturn since 2001. The total fertility rate rose from 1.73 children per woman in 2001 to 1.81 children per woman in 2005.

The issues of fertility, family support, and balancing family and work responsibilities are important, as demonstrated by the 2004–05 and 2005–06 Australian Government Budgets. These budgets increased assistance to families with dependent children. Increases in Family Tax Benefits helped families with the costs of raising children and balancing work, family and child-rearing responsibilities. Other measures included the introduction of a universal Maternity Payment, extending eligibility to the Large Family Supplement for families with three children, and increased child care provisions.

This exploratory study contributes to the fertility debate by examining the congruence between members of a couple in future fertility desires, expectations and intentions (number of children intended). The focus is on couples because fertility decisions and births usually occur within couple relationships and for couples to make the conscious decision to have a child requires that both husbands and wives agree. The motivation for studying whether or not couples' fertility desires, expectations and intentions agree is that the more congruent they are, the easier it will be for couples to realise them. Incongruence may make it difficult for couples to achieve desired, expected and intended fertility in their current relationship (Miller 1995, p. 532).

A US panel data study by Thomson (1997, pp. 348–49) found that when couples disagree about wanting a child, each partner's intentions were shifted towards not having a child. Thomson (1997, pp. 349–51) also found that husbands' views on fertility desires and intentions have approximately equal influence as that of wives' views on couples' births.

Interest in fertility preferences or prediction of fertility is based on the assumption that such preferences or intentions are related to fertility behaviour (van de Kaa 2001, pp. 316–21; Miller 1995; Thomson 1997). Fields (1999, p. 790) states that, according to previous research, individual fertility intentions are significant predictors of future fertility behaviour but that 'what is not clear is whether fertility intentions add to what is known from other established predictor variables or whether intentions simply mediate their effects'. To answer the question Fields (1999, pp. 794–99) applied a multivariate analysis technique (pooled logistic regression) to panel data and found that the likelihood of a birth is always substantially greater for those who intend to have a birth; that fertility intentions have important and significant effects net of other factors; and that 'for married persons, fertility intentions and their certainty predict fertility behaviour better than all other variables in the model combined'. Fields (1999, p. 799) observed that 'the results show that fertility is purposive behaviour that is based on intentions, integrated into the life course, and modified when unexpected developments occur'.

However, there are limitations in using data on fertility desires, expectations and intentions. This is because fertility desires, expectations and intentions are not good predictors of future fertility behaviour. A literature review (Tesfaghiorghis 2005) found that:

The gap between expectations and ultimate fertility is also due to biological constraints-that is, age-related inability to have children sets in as the timing of childbirth is increasingly delayed. Despite these shortcomings, it is useful to analyse men's and women's fertility desires, expectations and intentions to understand what future fertility behaviour would be if men and women are able to achieve them. This is important given the concern about Australia's falling fertility.

This comparative study of partners' future fertility desires, expectations and intentions is based on primary analysis of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey Waves 1–2 datasets. HILDA is the first major Australian Survey to ask the views of men and women on their desires, expectations and intentions to have children and on the number of children ever born. The HILDA survey collected the following relevant information for the study2:

The author's previous research on women's fertility examined the associations between education, work and fertility, and trends in completed cohort fertility using HILDA survey data (Tesfaghiorghis 2004, 2005). This paper complements the previous research by examining congruence or lack of congruence in partners' future fertility desires, expectations and intentions to obtain an understanding of future fertility behaviour.

Purpose

The purposes of this paper are listed below.

There is limited Australian research on men's fertility intentions and decisions let alone couples. Most of the available research relates only to women (McDonald 2000; Weston et al. 2004). The Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) in partnership with the Office for Women in the Australian Government Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, conducted for the first time a comprehensive survey on factors influencing fertility decisions of men and women to fill an existing gap in knowledge (Weston et al. 2004). The AIFS Fertility Decision Making Project collected information from 3,200 men and women aged 20–39 years, through telephone interviews, on their fertility aspirations and expectations about having children, perceived reasons for a mismatch between ideal and expected number of children and issues influencing fertility decisions. It also collected information from 313 of the respondents' partners, through self-completed questionnaires. The Fertility Decision Making Project asked respondents about their own and their partners' aspirations and expectations about having children and also collected this information directly from the small number of partners. Limited quantitative analysis was carried out on the information obtained from the small number of partners (Weston et al. 2004, pp. 116–18). This did not provide a sufficiently large representative sample of couples, however, to enable the researchers to compare fertility desires and expectations of each partner in a couple.

What is the contribution of this study compared to that Fertility Decision Making Project? This study will not cover fertility decision making of either individuals or members of a couple, as the HILDA survey does not ask about fertility decisions. HILDA, however, does allow a comparison of fertility desires, expectations and intentions of each partner in a couple, since this information was collected in face-to-face interviews from adults aged 18–55 years in all waves of the survey. Because of the data collection method and a larger sample size, the HILDA findings could be expected to be more reliable than those from the AIFS survey.

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2. Achieved fertility of women and their partners

The number of children a couple, or each member of a couple, already has affects each partner's fertility desires, expectations and intentions. A man or woman who already has two children, for instance, is likely to have different fertility desires, expectations and intentions from those with one or no children. In addition, the sex of existing children affects progression to higher parities, as the sex of existing children of young Australian women affects their progression to the third birth (Gray & Evans 2005, pp. 514–16).

In order to put partners' fertility preferences in context, an analysis of each partner's achieved fertility, measured by the number of children ever born to each partner, was undertaken. Though information on fertility preferences was collected for respondents aged 18–55 years, the analysis in this and subsequent sections is limited to women aged 18–44 years and their partners. As most women aged 45–55 years have generally completed their fertility, it is less useful to analyse the fertility desires and expectations of these women and their partners.

For the purpose of this analysis a sample of 2,436 (2,313,900 weighted population) currently partnered women aged 18–44 years from the 2001 HILDA survey were matched to their current spouses or partners. Those in de facto relationships constituted 23.1 per cent of all couples where women were aged 18–44 years.3 Though the majority of partners in relationships were legally married, the terms 'women' and 'partners' are used throughout this paper instead of 'wives' and 'husbands'.

Women were younger than their partners, a mean age of 33.8 years versus 36.7 years for partners. Those in de facto relationships were younger than those who were legally married. The mean age of women in de facto relationships was 29.3 years versus 35.2 years for married women. The figures for de facto partners were 32.1 and 38.1 years respectively. The proportion of couples in de facto relationships was 33.6 per cent for women aged 18–34 years and their partners and 12.1 per cent for those aged 35–44 years and their partners.

The majority of members of couples had the same number of children4 (57.5 per cent) or did not have any children (23.2 per cent). However, 19.3 per cent of women aged 18–44 years and their partners had different numbers of children. These figures were 16 per cent for women aged 18–34 years and their partners and 23 per cent for women aged 35–44 years and their partners. The proportion of couples with different numbers of children was higher in de facto couples than for those legally married. It was also higher for older couples than for younger couples. With respect to those legally married, 13.3 per cent of women aged 18–34 years and their partners and 17.0 per cent of women aged 35–44 years and their partners had different numbers of children (15.4 per cent overall). The corresponding figures for the de facto couples were 21.3 and 64.6 per cent respectively (32.5 per cent overall).

Figures 1 and 2 summarise the distribution of couples according to the number of children each member of a couple had for women aged 18–34 years and their partners and for those aged 35–44 years and their partners.5 A relatively large proportion of women aged 18–34 years and their partners had no children (40 per cent) with a lower proportion having one child (18.4 per cent) or two children or more (25.8 per cent). By contrast, the majority of couples where the woman was aged 35–44 years had two or more children (62.4 per cent) with only 6 per cent of couples having no children. There were only small proportions of couples where one partner had no children and the other had children (7.1 per cent for couples where the woman was aged 18–34 years and 7.8 per cent for couples where the woman was aged 35–44 years) or one partner had one child and the other had two or more children (4.1 per cent for women aged 18–34 years and their partners and 5.7 per cent for women aged 35–44 years and their partners).

Figure 1: Number of children that each member of a couple had, women aged 18–34 years and their partners

Figure 1: Number of children that each member of a couple had, women aged 18-34 years and their partners

Source: 2001 HILDA survey.

Figure 2: Number of children that each member of a couple had, women aged 35–44 years and their partners

Figure 2: Number of children that each member of a couple had, women aged 35-44 years and their partners

Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
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3. Desire to have children

HILDA enables an examination of the congruence of partners' desires to have a child or to have more children than they have already. Respondents were asked the question 'would you like to have a child of your own/more children in the future?' They were asked to pick a number ranging from 0, 'definitely would not like to have', to 10, 'definitely like'. The following categories were used to summarise the results: 0 'definitely would not like'; 1–3 'weak desire'; 4–5 'some desire'; 6–7 'moderate desire'; 8–9 'strong desire'; and 10 'would definitely like '.

When looking at the total population of women aged 18–44 years, 48.2 per cent said that they definitely would not like to have a child or another child in the future (last column of the first row in Table 1), 7.3 per cent had a weak desire for a child or another child in the future (scores 1–3), 6.4 per cent had some desire for a child or another child in the future (scores 4–5), 5.8 per cent had a moderate desire (scores 6–7), 8.2 per cent had a strong desire for a child or another child in the future (scores 8–9) and 24.0 per cent said that they definitely would like to have a child or another child (score 10). When looking at the fertility desires of the total population of partners, these were very similar to those of the total population of women (see the bottom row and right-hand column in Table 1).

When looking at matched couples, 62.4 per cent of couples (see the diagonal) were in agreement on 'would you like to have (more) children'. Both men's and women's scores were clustered at each end of the spectrum, though heavily skewed to the 'do not want (more) children'. That is, the majority of couples with congruent fertility desires were quite definite about whether or not they wanted a child or another child.

Table 1 - Distribution of women aged 18–44 years and their partners (%) according to 'would you like to have (more) children' scores
Women's scores

Partners' scores

 % of women
0 1–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10
0 39.8 3.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.9 48.2
1–3 2.7 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 7.3
4–5 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.6 1.0 6.4
6–7 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.2 5.8
8–9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.7 2.2 8.2
10 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 15.1 24.0
% of partners 46.4 8.3 7.7 7.3 9.6 20.7 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Rows and column totals are rounded and may not add to total figures.
Cell percentages are calculated by total weighted population and add up to 100 per cent.
The actual number of responding couples was 2,180 and missing cases were 225.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.

It is evident from Table 1, however, that a relatively large proportion of couples had incongruent fertility desires (37.6 per cent in the off-diagonals). There were small proportions of couples where women who definitely did not want to have a child or another child, or had weak desires (scores 0–3,) had partners who wanted children (score 6–10)- 4.4 per cent. The reverse was also true: there were small proportions of couples where women wanted to have children (scores 6–10), but their partners did not want to have a child or another child (scores 0–3)-4.4 per cent. It is worth investigating in future research if this is a signal of relationship problems-or may become a source of relationship problems in the future.

Agreement is measured by an index called Kappa. It equals 0.0 when women's and partners' agreement equals that expected by chance, and 1.0 when there is perfect agreement. The Kappa value will be higher the stronger the agreement in a given pair of marginal distributions. Although Kappa is used to measure agreement, models are useful for a more detailed investigation of the structure of agreement and disagreement (Agresti 1990, pp. 365–67). This analysis uses weighted Kappa since scores are ordinal, rather than nominal. The weighted Kappa value between women and partners' agreement on the desire to have children is 0.677. This difference indicates that the observed agreement between women and their partners over that which can be expected by chance (that is, if ratings are statistically independent) is about 67.7 per cent. The groupings used in the analysis affect the index to a small extent, as without the grouping weighted Kappa equals 68.3 per cent.

Table 2 - Women's and partners' agreement on the desire to have children
Statistic Value Asymptotic Standard error 95% confidence limits
Weighted Kappa 0.6771 0.0004 0.6764 0.6778

It is worth noting that for women aged 18–34 years and their partners without children, the desire to have children is almost universal. Only a small proportion of couples agreed on definitely not wanting to have a child or another child- 2.3 per cent (see Appendix Table A1). By contrast 22.9 per cent of women aged 35–44 years and their partners definitely did not want to have a child or another child.

The majority of those who definitely wanted a child or another child (score 10) had no children (55.9 per cent) or only one child (29.3 per cent). By contrast, the majority of women and their partners who definitely did not want to have a child or another child in the future already had two or more children. For example, of all women aged 18–44 years in the 2001 HILDA survey (table not provided) who definitely did not want to have a child or another child (score 0), only 7.0 per cent had no children, 9.7 per cent had one child, whereas 83.3 per cent had two or more children (42.1 per cent had two and 41.2 per cent had three or more). This is consistent with AIFS research, which found that two-child families were the ideal family size among men and women followed by three children, although the proportion of men and women indicating these 'popular' ideal family sizes declined somewhat with age (Weston et al. 2004, pp. 48–9).

The relationship observed between women's fertility desires and the number of children ever born holds also for partners. For both women and partners the relationship between fertility desires and number of children born is negative, as measured by Pearson correlation of –0.50. It is worth noting that the desire to have children according to number of children ever born and age group (see Appendix Table A1 and Table A2) is only strong for women aged 18–34 years and their partners who had no children or only one child.

The mean score results in Table 3 show that the aggregate differences between women and their partners were small, although partners tended to have less desire to have children than women, except for partners of women aged 35–44 years with one or more children. Young couples in de facto relationships without a child had less desire to have children than their married counterparts (table not shown), possibly because their relationships were of shorter duration and/or less stable and they were not yet focused on family formation.

Table 3 - 'Would you like to have a child or another child in the future?': mean scores of women aged 18–44 years and partners by age group and number of children born by couple
Age group
of women (years) 		Number of children
born by couple

Mean scores

Women Partners
18–34 No children 8.14 8.05
  One child 7.68 7.41
  Two or more children 2.85 2.73
  Different numbers of children 5.81 5.55
  Mean 6.18 6.03
35–44 No children 4.34 4.08
  One child 3.09 3.28
  Two or more children 0.94 1.07
  Different numbers of children 2.58 2.58
  Mean 1.54 1.64
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
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4. Expectations of having children

Respondents aged 18–55 years were asked a follow-up question: 'and how likely are you to have a child/more children in the future?' The responses ranged between 0 'definitely not likely', to 10 'definitely likely'. HILDA survey designers considered respondents with scores of 6 and above as likely to have children in the future. It is, however, possible that respondents with scores of 5 or less could be likely to have children in the future. An Australian survey (Weston et al. 2004) has found that respondents stated that certain preconditions have to be met before they decide to have children. These are 'being in a secure, stable and adequate relationship with a partner and having a secure, stable and adequate income stream'.

The salient feature of Table 4 is that 72 per cent of all couples were in agreement on the 'how likely are you to have (more) children in the future' scale. There are more couples in agreement about the likelihood (weighted Kappa of 0.807, table not shown) than about the desire to have a child or another child (weighted Kappa of 0.677), suggesting that some deliberate compromising is going on between members of a couple. Like the reported fertility desires, both men's and women's scores on the likelihood of having children were clustered at each end of the spectrum.

One-third of all women aged 18–44 years and of all partners said they were likely to have a child or another child (scores 6 and above) in the future (see the bottom row and right-hand column of Table 4). When looking at matched couples, the proportion where both women and their partners agreed that they were definitely not likely to have a child or another child was 45.8 per cent. By contrast, the proportion where both women and partners agreed that they were definitely likely to have a child or another child was 14.4 per cent.

As with the desire to have children, there was some mismatch between members of a couple in the perceived likelihood of having a child or another child (Table 4). A small proportion of women who said they were likely to have children (scores 6–10) had partners who said that they were not likely to have children (scores of 5 and below), 3.6 per cent. Similarly, a small proportion of partners who said that they were likely to have children were partners to women who said that they were not likely to have children, 4.0 per cent.

Table 4 - Distribution of women aged 18–44 years and their partners (%) according to 'how likely are you to have (more) children in the future?'
Women's scores

Partners' scores

 % of women
0 1–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10
0 45.8 3.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 51.5
1–3 2.8 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.4
4–5 0.6 1.1 3.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 6.9
6–7 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.5 4.6
8–9 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.5 8.7
10 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.1 3.2 14.4 19.9
% of partners 50.0 9.4 7.0 6.5 8.8 18.3 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Cell percentages are calculated by total weighted population and add up to 100 per cent.
The total number of responding couples was 2,180.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.

Similar to the desire to have children, the majority of women and their partners who said they were definitely not likely to have a child or another child in the future had borne two or more children. Like the desire for children, only a very small proportion of young couples without children agreed that they were definitely not likely to have a child or another child in the future-2.2 per cent (see Appendix Table A3).

As with the desire to have children, the majority of those who said that they were definitely likely to have a child or another child had no children or only one child. The pattern observed between fertility expectations (likelihood of having children) and number of children born held for women and for partners. There was a negative relationship between the likelihood of having children and the number of children born, as measured by Pearson correlation of –0.53.

As with desire to have children, the proportion of couples who agreed that there was a strong likelihood of having a child or another child in the future (scores 8–10) is highest for women aged 18–34 years and their partners who have no children or only one child (see the diagonals in Appendix Table A3). By contrast where the woman was aged 35–44 years, the proportion of couples who agreed that there was a strong likelihood of having a child or another child in the future (scores 8–10) according to number of children born was small (see Appendix Table A4).

A substantial proportion of couples (28 per cent) had incongruent expectations on having children in the future. Appendix Table A5 shows that women and partners in couples with congruent expectations (same scores) and incongruent expectations (different scores) had different characteristics. There are also differences in characteristics between women in congruent and incongruent couples (see columns 1 and 3). Compared to women in congruent couples, those women in incongruent couples:

Members of incongruent couples (women and partners) had different characteristics (see columns 1 and 2 of Appendix Table A5). When partners in incongruent couples were compared to women, it was found that partners:

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5. Comparison of fertility desires and expectations

It is expected that higher fertility desires would be associated with higher fertility expectations and vice versa. The association between fertility desires and expectations is demonstrated in Appendix Table A6 for women aged 18–44 years. For the majority of women, 78.6 per cent, their fertility desires were consistent with their fertility expectations. The results in Appendix Table A6 show that high fertility desires (scores 8–10) were matched by high fertility expectations (scores 8–10) if women had no children or had only one child. Similarly there was a match between very low fertility desires and very low fertility expectations particularly if women already had two or more children.

For example, 37.2 per cent of women without children and 32.5 per cent of those with one child who definitely wanted to have a child (score 10) also said that they were definitely likely to have a child (see Appendix Table A6). This figure dropped to 4.0 per cent if they had two or more children. By contrast, the proportion of women who definitely did not want to have a child and who also said they definitely did not expect to have a child increased with the number of children.

The agreement between women's fertility desires and expectations was very high (weighted Kappa = 82.1 per cent, table not shown). However, about one-quarter of women had inconsistent fertility desires and expectations. These women had similar characteristics to women in couples with incongruent expectations described in the preceding section. Compared with women with consistent fertility desires and expectations, women with inconsistent fertility desires and expectations were:

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6. Couples' fertility intentions by number of children born

The analysis in this section focuses on couples where both women and their partners said that they expected to have a child or another child and looks at how many children they intended to have according to the number of children they already had. Readers should note the limitation of the intentions data when interpreting these results. HILDA survey designers arbitrarily decided that only those who returned scores of 6 to 10 on the question 'how likely are you to have children in the future?' be asked to state the number of additional children they intended to have. Thus those with scores of 5 or less who may have intended to have children in the future were not asked about their intentions. It is certainly possible that those with borderline scores of 4 and 5 might have intended to have children.6

The majority of couples that intended to have children (scores 6–10 on the likelihood question) had no children (55.6 per cent) or only one child (24.7 per cent). Those with two or more children comprised 9.6 per cent of couples that intended to have children, and a further 10.1 per cent were couples with different numbers of children.

As expected, most of the couples intending to have children (91 per cent) were women aged 18–34 years and their partners (table not shown). Women aged 18–34 years and their partners without children or with only one child comprised 76 per cent of all couples that intended to have children (54 per cent were those without children and 22 per cent with one child).

Table 5 shows the number of children women aged 18–34 years intended to have against the number of children their partners intended to have, based on the number of children the couple already had. The salient results are described below.

Table 5 - Couples intending to have children by number of children intended: women aged 18–34 years and their partners by couples' number of children
Number of children intended by
couple's number of children

Partner: number of children intended

 % of women
1 2 3+
Women
Couple: no child
1 2.8 4.9 0.7 8.4
2 2.9 47.2 9.5 59.6
3+ 0.0 14.3 17.7 32.0
% of partners 5.7 66.4 27.9 100.0
Couple: 1 child
1 45.8 13.8 1.3 60.9
2 13.3 15.9 2.1 31.3
3+* 0.6 1.3 5.9 7.8
% of partners 59.7 31.0 9.3 100.0
Couple: >2 children
1 61.7 10.1 0.0 71.8
2 10.1 14.2 0.0 24.3
3+* 2.4 0.0 1.5 3.9
% of partners 74.2 24.3 1.5 100.0
Couple: different number of children
1 23.6 7.4 3.5 34.5
2 13.9 27.9 10.4 52.2
3+* 3.5 6.2 3.6 13.3
% of partners 41.0 41.5 17.5 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
The actual number of couples that intended to have children was 290 couples without a child,
134 couples with one child, 49 couples with two or more children and 54 couples with different numbers of children.
* The number of couples that intended to have three or more children is small.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
Table 6 - Women's and partner's agreement on the intended number of children by couples' number of children
Statistic Value Asymptotic
Standard error 		95% confidence limits
Weighted Kappa        
Couple: no child 0.4019 0.0014 0.3991 0.4047
Couple: 1 child 0.4611 0.0023 0.4566 0.4656
Couple: >2 children 0.4420 0.0047 0.4343 0.4512
Couple: different number of children 0.2914 0.0033 0.2849 0.2978
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7. Expected completed fertility and childlessness

The distribution of women aged 18–44 years and their partners by number of children intended according to the number of children ever born and women's age group can be used to estimate completed fertility7 and lifetime childlessness8 for cohorts with currently incomplete fertility, as shown in Table 7. The proportion of women and partners intending to have one child or additional children and the mean number of children intended are also shown in this table (columns 2 and 3).

The results show that while more than half of women aged 18–34 years and their partners intended to have a child or another child, only about 7.0 per cent of women aged 35–44 years and their partners intended to do so. Of women aged 18–34 years without children, 78.5 per cent intended to have children with a mean of 2.32 children. The corresponding figures for women aged 35–44 years were 18.7 per cent and 1.66 children respectively.

In general the proportion of partners intending to have children and the mean number of children intended, according to number of children born, were comparable with that of women. However, there were some small differences between the subgroups of women and partners. The proportion of those without children that intended to have children was slightly higher for partners than for women in both age groups, while the reverse was true for those with one child. Furthermore among women aged 35–44 years and their partners, the mean number of children that partners intended to have was higher than that of women irrespective of the number of children born.

Table 7 - Percentage of women aged 18–44 years and their partners intending to have additional children, mean number of children intended, expected completed fertility and childlessness by age group and number of children ever born
Age group/number of
children ever born 		% intending to have
children 		Mean number
of children intended 		Expected
completed
fertility 		Expected
childlessness (%)
18–34 years
Women (MNCEB=1.10)
No child 78.5 2.32 1.82  
One child 69.9 1.49 2.04  
Two children 25.7 1.26 2.32  
Three or more children 16.2 1.50 3.73  
Total 57.3 2.01 2.25 9.6
Partner (MNCEB=1.15)
No child 81.7 2.32 1.89  
One child 68.4 1.56 2.07  
Two children 25.3 1.39 2.35  
Three or more children 14.2 1.47 3.81  
Total 57.4 2.00 2.30 7.8
35–44 years
Women (MNCEB=2.27)
No child 18.7 1.66 0.31  
One child 22.7 1.24 1.28  
Two children 3.2 1.15 2.04  
Three or more children 3.9 1.12 3.54  
Total 7.5 1.31 2.37 7.3
Partner (MNCEB=2.26)
No child 20.0 2.40 0.48  
One child 18.4 1.42 1.26  
Two children 4.7 1.35 2.06  
Three or more children 2.5 1.43 3.57  
Total 7.2 1.68 2.38 8.2
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
MNCEB = mean number of children borne by women or partners of a given age group.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.

The levels of completed fertility and childlessness that would be achieved when each age group completes its fertility were estimated by combining information on the number of children ever born with the number of children women and partners intended to have. These figures are based on the assumption that those women and partners who intended to have more children would achieve their number of children intended in their remaining reproductive life span. The method of calculating completed cohort fertility used in this paper differs from the usual method, which is to add the fertility already achieved by women of a given age and the last observed cross-sectional fertility rates at each age above that given age to arrive at an estimate of completed fertility (McDonald 2000, pp. 7–10; Sardon 2004, p.295). The usual method assumes that fertility rates remain constant and tends to underestimate completed fertility because cross-sectional fertility rates at older ages are increasing.

In aggregate, the estimates of completed fertility and childlessness for men and women are remarkably close. Women currently aged 18–34 years had on average 1.10 children. If their number of children intended materialises, they would have 2.25 children when they complete their fertility. Though, as a group, the 18–34 year old women would achieve replacement fertility unlike those without children at the time of the survey. The completed fertility of those aged 18–34 years without children would be 1.82 children, compared with 2.04 children for those with one child. The results for their partners were similar. However, these results require qualification. This does not mean that all young women who at the time of the survey had no children would not achieve replacement fertility, as the majority of those who intended to have children wanted more than two children. But the estimated average completed fertility of the whole group is reduced because a significant proportion (21.5 per cent) said they did not intend to have any children.

As a group, women aged 35–44 years and partners without children would not even achieve one child. This is presumably because the fertility intentions of this group have been modified by their life experiences and circumstances and that those women aged 40–44 had very little potential reproductive life left.

The extent of childlessness for women aged 35–44 years was 7.3 per cent and 8.2 per cent for their partners. The extent of childlessness for women aged 18–34 years in 2001 would be 9.6 per cent. The corresponding figure for their partners was 7.8 per cent. HILDA estimates of the expected extent of lifetime childlessness for members of couples or all women aged 20–24 years in 2001 were lower than that of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates (Tesfaghiorghis 2005, pp. 93, 99).

However, there are important caveats with these estimates. First, the preceding analyses have shown a considerable mismatch between the number of children women and their partners intended to have. Thus it cannot be assumed that each member of every couple would be able to have the number of children they intended to have, given that in some couples each partner intended to have different numbers of children. Some women or partners may have fewer children than they intended to have while others may achieve their intentions despite their partners having different intentions. Second, as noted already there is a limitation on the fertility intentions data, as HILDA survey designers decided to ask only those they regarded as likely to have children. Third, it may be more difficult for 18–34 year olds to achieve their intentions in their current partnership than 35–44 year olds, as a significant proportion of the younger group are in de facto relationships. These tend to be less stable than legal married relationships (Weston et al. 2004, p. 8). However, it is also possible that these young people may fulfil their fertility intentions if the current relationship is legalised or if it breaks up and the partners move onto a more stable relationship. It is also possible that they can have children in unstable relationships or outside of relationships. Thus the estimates of completed fertility and childlessness for those with incomplete fertility, given in the last two columns of Table 7, should only be taken as ideal for each group of women and partners.

Given the mismatch between women and partners on the numbers of children they intended to have, estimates of completed fertility for couples were also undertaken using different assumptions as to whose fertility intentions (women or their partners) materialised so as to indicate the range of future fertility outcomes. Estimates of completed fertility are calculated according to women's age group and number of children ever borne by each member of the couple. The following hypothetical assumptions of fertility intention outcomes were made to arrive at different scenarios of completed fertility:

Table 8 shows the results for different types of couples9 classified according to number of children ever born. Data for each type of couple as a proportion of total couples by women's age groups is shown in the last column of Table 8. The results presented give the completed fertility of the couple as a whole. The key results are summarised below.

Table 8 - Estimates of couples' completed fertility under different assumptions of number of children intended by age group of women and number of children ever born by couple
Age group/ number of children
born by couple

Intention assumptions

 % of couples*
Women's Partners' Mean Lower Higher
18–34 years
Couple each            
– without children 1.79 1.85 1.82 1.56 2.30 39.85
– with 1 child 2.08 2.07 2.07 1.87 2.27 18.40
– with 2 children 2.30 2.26 2.28 2.18 2.38 17.14
– with 3 children 3.17 3.18 3.17 3.10 3.25 6.15
– with 4 or more children (4.55) 4.76 4.85 4.81 4.76 4.85 2.51
Woman=0 and partner ≥ 1 child (1.83) 3.25 2.94 3.09 2.80 3.39 4.63
Partner=0 and woman ≥ 1 child (1.78) 2.53 2.85 2.69 2.37 3.01 2.43
Woman=1 and partner ≥ 2 children (2.6) 3.13 3.10 3.11 2.97 3.26 1.77
Partner=1 and woman ≥ 2 children (2.59) 2.80 2.91 2.86 2.80 3.00 2.30
Other (3.33) 3.65 3.54 3.59 3.47 3.72 4.82
Group mean and total couples 2.31 2.32 2.32 2.12 2.60 100.00
35–44 years
Couple each            
– without children 0.38 0.45 0.41 0.31 0.52 5.83
– with 1 child 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.22 1.41 8.95
– with 2 children 2.04 2.06 2.05 2.03 2.07 32.86
– with 3 children 3.03 3.02 3.02 3.01 3.03 19.05
With 4 or more children (4.38) 4.41 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.42 10.50
Woman=0 and partner ≥ 1 child (2.38) 2.55 2.51 2.53 2.46 2.61 3.51
Partner=0 and woman ≥ 1 child (1.88) 2.04 2.13 2.09 2.01 2.16 4.32
Woman=1 and partner ≥ 2 children (2.81) 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.46
Partner=1 and woman ≥ 2 children (2.76) 2.83 2.84 2.84 2.79 2.89 3.23
Other (3.19) 3.22 3.20 3.21 3.20 3.23 9.29
Group mean and total couples 2.49 2.50 2.49 2.46 2.53 100.00
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
* The actual number of couples where the woman was aged 18–34 years was 1,216 and 1,220 where the woman was aged 35–44 years.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
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8. When to have the next child?

In the 2002 HILDA survey, women and partners who intended to have children were asked 'in which year do you intend to have a/your next child?'. While more than half of those who intended to have one child or two children were sure about the exact year in which they intended to have the next child, a relatively large proportion were unsure about the exact year but indicated the time range, and a small proportion were unable to answer the question. Table 9 presents the distribution of women aged 18–44 years and partners who intended to have children by when they intended to have them and the number of children intended. The main results are summarised below.

In conclusion the time when women or partners intended to have the next child is dependent on the number of children intended. If they intended to have only one child (or one more child), they were likely to intend to have the next child sooner rather than later, within the next three years. Even for those who intended to have two or more children, however, close to 60 per cent of both women and partners intended to have the next child sooner rather than later, that is, within the next three years.

These findings are consistent with the AIFS Fertility Decision Making Project. In the AIFS study, about one-half of men and two-thirds of women aged 20–39 years who intended to have children expected to have their first child or one additional child within the next three years (Weston et al. 2004, pp. 93–5). The AIFS survey, however, did not ask the time frame according to the number of children intended.

Table 9 - Women aged 18–44 years and partners who intended to have children (or more children) by when they intended to have them and number of children intended
Year to have the next child

Women: number of
children intended

Partners: number of
children intended

1 2 3+ 1 2 3+
2002–05 57.4 45.5 44.8 52.3 42.5 42.9
2006 or later 2.0 5.8 7.0 1.8 10.0 3.1
Don't know but within the next:            
2 years 26.6 13.1 14.1 23.7 15.8 15.0
3–5 years 10.0 23.7 23.7 12.7 22.0 33.7
6 years+/ unsure 4.0 11.9 10.4 9.5 9.7 5.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Sample size 229 299 132 211 277 113
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Source: 2002 HILDA survey.

For women aged 18–44 years and their partners who intended to have a child or to have another child, the year in which they intended to have that child is also dependent on the number of children they already had. The results in Table 10 are limited to women and partners without children or with only one child, as the numbers of those with two or more children who intended to have more children were small.

The key result is that if women or partners had no children, the year they intended to have their first child is further in the future than if they already had one child, irrespective of the number of children they intended to have. A higher proportion of women and partners without children than those with one child said that they 'don't know but within the next 3–5 years' plus '6 years+/ unsure' when asked about which year they intended to have their first child. This probably reflects the fact that those without children are younger, have more potential years of child-bearing ahead of them, have not yet formed stable relationships or have just formed such relationships. This could be investigated in further work using HILDA survey data.

These results confirm the AIFS finding that parents were more likely than those without children to expect to have a child or the next child within the next three years (Weston et al. 2004, pp. 94–5). The AIFS study explained this difference by saying that those without children tended to be younger and were more likely to be single.

Table 10 - Women aged 18–44 years and partners who intended to have children (or more children) by when they intended to have them by number of children ever born and number of children intended
Number of children/year to
have the next child

Women: number of
children intended

Partners: number of
children intended

1 2 3+ 1 2 3+
Without children
2002–05 45.2 43.2 41.1 45.3 39.8 39.3
2006 or later 5.4 5.8 7.7 0.0 11.7 2.5
Don't know but within the next:            
2 years 30.5 10.9 14.5 30.9 14.8 13.6
3–5 years 15.1 26.3 25.2 7.4 22.1 39.5
6+ years/unsure 3.8 13.8 11.5 16.8 11.6 5.1
Total % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Sample size 44 229 120 41 219 92
With one child
2002–05 61.6 52.0 77.8 50.9 53.3 65.9
2006 or later 1.1 3.6 0.0 1.7 0.0 6.7
Don't know but within the next:            
2 years 21.5 30.9 11.5 25.8 23.5 14.3
3–5 years 9.8 10.0 10.7 12.4 23.2 13.1
6+ years/unsure 6.0 3.5 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0
Total % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Sample size 113 42 8 103 43 15
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Source: 2002 HILDA survey.
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9. Conclusion

The analysis found that most women aged 18–44 years and their partners had the same number of children or did not have any children. However, it also found that a substantial proportion of couples (19.3 per cent) had different numbers of children; 16 per cent of couples where women were aged 18–34 years and 23 per cent of couples where women were aged 35–44 years.

The study found that in a majority of couples there was agreement between women aged 18–44 years and their partners about the desire to have children, or to have more children if they already had one or more children. However in a relatively large proportion of cases (37.6 per cent) there was no concordance. In a small proportion of couples, women said they would definitely not like to have (more) children but their partners wanted to have (more) children. Similarly, a small proportion of women said they definitely wanted to have (more) children but their partners did not.

In a large proportion of all couples, both women and partners agreed that they did not want to have (more) children in the future. The majority of these couples had two children or more and had probably decided they had enough children. By contrast, the majority of couples who definitely wanted children either did not have any children or only had one child, while the proportion of couples with two or more children who wanted more children were relatively low.

There was a much higher level of agreement between members of a couple about the expectation of having children than the desire to have children, suggesting that some deliberate compromising occurs between members of a couple. Like the desire to have children, the expectation of having children is affected by the number of children the couple already had. It was found that the desire to have children and the perceived likelihood of having children in the future was only strong for 18–34 year old women and their partners without children or with only one child. Furthermore, the proportion of 18–34 year old women and their partners without children who both agreed that they definitely did not want to have children or that they were definitely not likely to have children in the future was very small, less than 3.0 per cent.

The study also found that when women with inconsistent fertility desires and expectations were compared to those with consistent fertility desires and expectations, the former group were found to be much younger, more highly educated, more likely to be in de facto relationships, more likely to have no children, and to be employed, particularly full-time.

The analysis found that there were differences in characteristics between women and partners in couples with both congruent and incongruent expectations about having children in the future. These differences in their characteristics may be one reason for couples having different expectations in the future.

Comparisons of the characteristics of women and partners in couples with inconsistent expectations about having children in the future showed that partners were older, had two or more previous de facto relationships, had more children, had lower educational qualifications, were more likely to have long-term health problems and were more likely to be employed, particularly full-time.

Women aged 18–44 years and partners who said they were likely to have children in the future were then asked to state the number of children they intended to have. Where women and their partners agreed that they were likely to have children in the future, there was a relatively high level of mismatch between them in the number of children they intended to have. The agreement between women and their partners on the number of children intended was weaker than that of desires and expectations about having children.

The relationship between women and their partner's number of children intended is dependent on the woman's age and number of children ever born. The majority of women and partners without children intended to have two or more children. There was a higher level of agreement among couples with two or more children on the number of children intended than couples without children or one child. The analysis also found that women and partners with no children, the common number of children intended was two. This is irrespective of the woman's age. However, if they already had one child or more, the common number of children they intend to have was one more child.

Estimates of completed fertility for women aged 18–34 years and their partners, based on their number of children intended and children ever born, indicate that they would achieve more than replacement fertility (more than 2.06 children). However, women and partners without children, as a group, would not achieve replacement fertility irrespective of age. Women aged 35–44 years and partners with only one child, as a group, would also not achieve replacement fertility.

An important caveat to this analysis, however, is that not all women and partners will achieve their intended number of children because of the level of mismatch between couples in this regard, as well as the downward revision of expectations and intentions with age through circumstances and experience.

Because of the mismatch in fertility expectations and intentions between members of couples, different scenarios of fertility intentions were used to estimate couples' future completed fertility. The estimates were only sensitive to different assumptions for couples without children, couples with one child or those couples who had different numbers of children.

This study examined when women and partners, who intended to have children, intended to have a child or their next child. The findings were that the year in which women or partners intended to have the next child is sooner rather than later (next three years) if they intended to have only one child (or one more child). It was also found that the year when women and partners without children intended to have their first child is further in the future than if they already had children.

The study found a considerable mismatch between members of a couple in terms of desires, expectations and intentions to have children. This may indicate current or future problems with the stability and/or quality of their relationships. The AIFS survey found lack of stable relationships and secure and adequate income was an important factor in men and women not being able to have the children they wanted (Weston et al. 2004).

In terms of future analysis, the HILDA survey provides an opportunity to study the congruence of partners' future fertility desires, expectations and intentions according to a broad range of demographic and socioeconomic variables. Although the HILDA survey did not collect information on how couples make fertility decisions, it may provide some insight on whether fertility intentions materialise and future courses of fertility.

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Appendix A

Table A1 - 'Would you like to have children' scores of women aged 18–34 years and their partners (%) by couple's number of children
Couple's number of children/
Women's scores

Partners' scores

 % of women
0 1–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10
No children
0 2.3 0.7 0.5 1.4 0.0 0.5 5.3
1–3 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 4.7
4–5 0.2 0.7 1.3 3.1 1.4 1.1 7.8
6–7 0.0 0.6 0.9 2.6 2.1 2.9 9.1
8–9 0.0 0.8 0.8 3.0 7.0 5.4 17.0
10 0.5 1.0 2.8 3.9 10.5 37.4 56.1
% of partners 3.3 5.4 7.4 14.7 21.7 47.5 100.0
One child
0 4.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.4 7.0
1–3 0.3 2.6 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.7 8.0
4–5 0.3 2.2 2.4 1.0 0.3 3.0 9.2
6–7 0.9 0.5 1.1 1.9 1.4 2.1 7.9
8–9 1.0 0.5 3.1 0.7 3.0 4.4 12.7
10 0.9 0.9 2.9 4.1 11.9 34.6 55.3
% of partners 8.3 7.3 11.2 9.5 17.6 46.1 100.0
>2 children
0 43.8 3.4 2.4 1.2 0.9 2.2 53.9
1–3 5.4 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.4 12.2
4–5 1.9 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.5 1.6 9.2
6–7 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 6.0
8–9 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.9 1.2 1.0 6.3
10 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 7.8 12.4
% of partners 56.1 11.6 8.3 6.5 3.7 13.8 100.0
Different number of children
0 19.8 0.5 3.2 2.9 1.7 0.0 28.1
1–3 2.2 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 5.6
4–5 1.6 0.0 4.0 1.5 0.8 2.3 10.2
6–7 0.9 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.9 0.7 6.9
8–9 1.5 0.0 2.0 4.3 1.2 3.7 12.7
10 2.4 0.8 2.3 5.1 3.7 22.3 36.6
% of partners 28.3 2.1 15.6 14.8 10.2 29.0 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Row and column totals are rounded and may not add to total figures.
The actual numbers of couples were 386 without children, 201 with one child, 389 with two or more children and 129 with different numbers of children. Of the couples with different numbers of children, there were 104 missing cases.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
Table A2 - 'Would you like to have children' scores of women aged 35–44 years and their partners (%) by couple's number of children
Couple's number of children/
women's scores

Partners' scores

 % of women
0 1–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10
No children
0 23.0 10.6 1.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 36.4
1–3 8.3 2.2 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8
4–5 0.0 1.7 2.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 6.5
6–7 0.0 2.4 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.0 6.6
8–9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.8 11.7
10 3.3 0.0 3.1 0.0 8.3 8.3 23.0
% of partners 34.6 16.8 12.4 3.0 23.1 10.1 100.0
One child
0 43.6 4.3 0.0 3.0 3.3 0.9 55.1
1–3 6.6 1.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
4–5 2.5 0.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 7.0
6–7 0.5 1.1 0.0 3.5 0.0 1.9 7.0
8–9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 3.0
10 0.9 0.0 2.3 2.0 1.7 11.9 18.8
% of partners 54.9 7.4 4.6 8.4 7.2 17.5 100.0
>2 children
0 71.8 5.7 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 82.6
1–3 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 6.5
4–5 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 2.5
6–7 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.3 2.7
8–9 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.9
10 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.8
% of partners 78.3 9.0 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 100.0
Different number of children
0 50.0 5.8 5.5 0.0 1.5 1.0 63.8
1–3 0.6 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.6
4–5 2.8 2.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
6–7 1.5 1.1 2.5 1.0 0.0 1.2 7.3
8–9 2.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 4.5
10 0.6 0.0 1.8 0.0 2.7 7.3 12.4
% of partners 57.5 9.9 15.3 1.0 5.0 11.3 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Row and column totals are rounded and may not add to total figures.
The actual numbers of couples were 61 without children, 92 with one child, 792 with two or more children and 130 with different numbers of children. Of the couples with different numbers of children, there were 121 missing cases.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
Table A3 - 'How likely are you to have (a child/more children) in the future?': scores of women aged 18–34 years and their partners (%) by couple's number of children
Couple's number of children/
women's scores

Partners' scores

 % of women
0 1–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10
No children
0 2.2 1.2 0.0 1.4 0.2 0.5 5.5
1–3 0.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 5.1
4–5 0.4 0.9 4.2 1.8 0.6 1.5 9.4
6–7 0.0 0.5 1.0 3.5 2.3 1.4 8.7
8–9 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 11.0 8.3 23.3
10 0.3 0.2 1.2 2.7 9.2 34.4 48.0
% of partners 3.1 5.1 7.7 13.4 24.1 46.6 100.0
One child
0 5.5 0.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
1–3 0.7 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.9 0.4 8.8
4–5 0.0 1.0 5.2 2.3 0.4 0.9 9.8
6–7 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.3
8–9 0.6 0.4 0.4 2.9 7.8 4.3 16.4
10 1.3 0.5 1.5 2.2 6.4 38.8 50.7
% of partners 8.0 6.5 12.9 11.7 16.5 44.4 100.0
>2 children
0 49.1 5.3 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.2 58.1
1–3 5.9 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.6
4–5 1.5 3.3 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.8 10.0
6–7 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.3 5.6
8–9 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 4.5
10 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 7.6 10.2
% of partners 58.3 14.9 9.2 5.8 2.4 9.4 100.0
Different number of children
0 19.8 1.8 3.3 0.8 0.7 0.0 26.4
1–3 2.7 2.8 3.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 10.3
4–5 1.8 1.6 5.7 0.9 2.6 1.4 14.0
6–7 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.8 3.7
8–9 1.5 0.0 1.6 4.9 2.0 2.4 12.3
10 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.7 4.3 24.1 33.3
% of partners 25.8 6.1 17.5 10.0 11.8 28.8 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Row and column totals are rounded and may not add to total figures.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
Table A4 - 'How likely are you to have (a child/more children) in the future?' Scores of women aged 35–44 years and their partners (%) by couple's number of children
Couple's number of children/
women's scores

Partners' scores

 % of women
0 1–3 4–5 6–7 8–9 10
No children
0 35.5 6.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.4
1–3 6.0 6.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8
4–5 2.0 0.0 12.0 4.7 1.7 0.0 20.4
6–7 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.1 0.0 1.8 6.4
8–9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 7.2
10 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 4.2 2.1 7.8
% of partners 43.5 13.0 18.7 7.8 13.1 3.9 100.0
One child
0 55.1 4.6 0.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 62.5
1–3 6.9 2.4 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
4–5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.8
6–7 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.6 4.8
8–9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.2 4.3
10 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 3.9 8.7 15.2
% of partners 63.4 7.7 4.0 6.2 8.1 10.6 100.0
>2 children
0 81.7 4.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 87.5
1–3 2.7 4.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0
4–5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
6–7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.5
8–9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2
10 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9
% of partners 85.1 9.9 1.8 0.9 0.9 1.4 100.0
Different number of children
0 62.1 7.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.9
1–3 3.0 5.7 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 12.1
4–5 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 5.8
6–7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
8–9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.3
10 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.7 5.9 9.0
% of partners 66.1 13.8 9.1 3.6 1.5 5.9 100.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Row and column totals are rounded and may not add to total figures.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
Table A5 - Comparison of members in incongruent and congruent couples by selected characteristics
Selected characteristics

Incongruent couples

Congruent couples

  Women Partner Women Partner
Age group
18–24 17.3 8.9 6.8 3.8
25–29 21.7 18.4 14.7 13.2
30–34 28.8 27.2 21.2 17.7
>35 32.2 45.5 57.3 65.3
Total – number 960.0 960.0 1,476.0 1,476.0
          mean age (years) 31.2 34.8 35.1 37.8
Number of children born
None 39.8 37.9 21.1 21.0
1 child 20.4 20.6 15.9 16.3
>2 children 39.8 41.5 63.0 62.7
Number of times married
Once 90.8 88.0 90.3 86.7
Two or more 9.2 12.0 9.7 13.3
Educational level
Bachelor or higher 29.7 27.0 21.9 22.5
Diploma 10.2 7.8 10.2 8.9
Certificate 3 or 4 11.3 29.2 10.7 32.6
Certificate 2 or lower 48.8 36.0 57.2 36.0
Labour force status
Employed–full-time 38.9 82.3 33.5 84.8
Employed–part-time 30.5 7.6 35.3 5.5
Jobless 30.6 10.1 31.1 9.7
% with a long-term health condition* 9.7 17.9 11.3 16.1
Years lived together before marriage
Still in first marriage 43.6 43.0 47.8 47.9
0–1 year 22.4 22.8 22.3 21.9
2–3 years 21.1 21.5 18.2 18.3
>4 years 12.9 12.7 11.7 11.9
De facto couples
How likely to marry current partner
Very likely 39.1 42.0 41.4 45.8
Likely 18.5 23.6 21.3 20.0
Not sure 25.9 23.0 18.6 19.1
Unlikely 9.0 5.2 4.8 7.3
Very unlikely 7.5 6.2 13.9 7.8
Total–number 330.0 330.0 237.0 237.0
Number of previous de facto relationships
Still in first de facto 62.3 61.1 65.2 60.8
One 22.0 16.7 22.2 21.9
Two or more 15.7 22.2 12.6 17.3
Duration of current relationship
<1 year 24.0 24.5 21.0 21.0
1 to less than 2 years 18.7 20.7 16.0 14.8
2 to less than 5 years 34.8 31.6 30.4 31.7
>5 years 22.6 23.2 32.4 32.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis from the 2001 HILDA survey.
* Around 16.1 per cent of partners had long-term health conditions. The percentage of women and partners in incongruent couples with fair/poor current health were similar (8.4 and 8.9 per cent respectively). However, the figures for congruent couples were higher at around 11 per cent each.
Table A6 - Comparison of 'would you like to have (more) children' by likelihood of 'are you to have (more) children' scores in the future by number of children born: women aged 18–44 years
Like to have children
scores (desires)

Likelihood of having children scores (expectations)

0 1-3 4-5 6-7 8-9 10
No children
0 12.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
1–3 1.1 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2
4–5 0.4 0.5 4.8 1.1 0.4 0.4
6–7 0.3 0.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 0.9
8–9 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.1 9.7 2.3
10 0.6 0.3 2.7 0.6 7.4 37.2
One child
0 26.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3
1–3 1.0 4.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.7
4–5 0.4 3.0 3.9 0.4 0.4 0.7
6–7 0.6 1.7 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.2
8–9 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 4.4 1.1
10 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 3.3 32.5
>2 children
0 70.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
1–3 2.7 4.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1
4–5 0.9 1.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
6–7 1.5 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
8–9 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.8 0.1
10 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.0
Note: This table is based on population-weighted analysis.
Cell percentages are calculated by total weighted population (630,334 without children, 402,203 with one child and 1,281,407 with two or more children) and thus add up to 100 per cent. The actual samples of women were 588 without children, 410 with one child and 1,438 with two or more children.
Source: 2001 HILDA survey.
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Endnotes

1. The author would like to thank Andrew Whitecross and Helen Moyle for their useful comments on earlier drafts of this paper.

2. Most of the analyses in this paper are based on Wave 1 data except for Section 8 ('when to have the next child?'). The latter is based on Wave 2 data.

3. The results, based on an analysis of actual sample and weighted population, are similar. However, the results between the weighted and unweighted population analyses are different when small sample sizes are involved. As a consequence the results in this paper are based on population-weighted analysis. However, the actual sample sizes are given in marginal distributions so that readers have an idea of what sample sizes are involved.

4. Partners could have the same number of children, but from different relationships.

5. The number of children borne by a couple are categorised as follows:

1. Both 0 (couple without children).

2. Woman (0) and partner (>0) (woman with no child and partner with one or more children).

3. Woman (>0) and partner (0) (partner with no child and woman with one or more children).

4. Both 1 (couple had one child each).

5. Woman (1) and partner (>1) (woman with one child and partner with two or more children).

6. Woman (>1) and partner (1) (partner with one child and woman with two or more children).

7. Both 2 (couple had two children each).

8. Both 3–6 (couple where each partner has the same numbers of children: 3, 4, 5 or 6).

9. Other (couple who had different numbers of children not included in the above).

6. This has changed in Wave 5 where all women were asked.

7. The completed fertility rate, as measured here, is the average number of children that a cohort of women had over their reproductive lifetime.

8. The proportion of women aged 45–49 years that are childless usually measures the extent of childlessness in the population.

9. These are:

1. Couples without children.

2. Couples with one child.

3. Couples with two children.

4. Couples with three children.

5. Couples with four or more children.

6. Woman without children and partner with one or more children (woman=0 and partner ≥ 1 child).

7. Partner without children and woman with one or more children (partner =0 and woman ≥ 1 child).

8. Woman with one child and partner with two or more children (woman=1 and partner with ≥ 2 children).

9. Partner with one child and woman with two or more children (partner =1 and woman ≥ 2 children).

10. Other.

10. They were interviewed in the second half of 2002.

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References

Agresti, A 1990, Categorical Data Analysis, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York.

Fields, JM 1999, 'Do fertility intentions aff